Know the 0DTE odds before you trade.
Retail traders lost $2.1 billion on options in 20 months, according to a 2023 study in the Journal of Finance.¹ Who did they lose it to? The market makers, the exchanges, the pros. StrikeZone IQ puts the historical record for every 0DTE strike in front of you, across 59 underlyings, including SPX, SPY, QQQ, TSLA and NVDA, refreshed every minute of the session on Pro. Here's the 2x card from the November 4, 2026 9:45 AM ET board: how often contracts at its distance doubled at some point during the day, and how often they expired worthless.
¹ Bryzgalova, Pavlova and Sikorskaya, “Retail Trading in Options and the Rise of the Big Three Wholesalers”, The Journal of Finance, 2023.
StrikeZone IQ · Buyer's Odds
SPXW 7715 call
November 4 · 9:45 AM ET
Cost $14.10 · 14 points above spot
- 42.8%
- Doubled in price at some point during the day
- 21.0%
- At least doubled at close
- 56.4%
- Expired worthless
Read those again. 51% of those doubles were gone by the close.
Selling premium?
StrikeZone IQ demystifies selling 0DTE.
Most retail option trades are purchases, especially at 0DTE: one study found 93% of retail 0DTE trades opened with a purchase. StrikeZone IQ's odds are built for buyers and sellers alike and are easy to grasp: for the spread you sell, how often its short strike went in the money, how often it stayed there, what it lost when it did, and the most it can lose.
Source: Bogousslavsky and Muravyev, “An Anatomy of Retail Option Trading,” working paper, 2024: $15 billion of retail trades.
StrikeZone IQ · Seller's Odds
SPXW 7745/7750 call spread
November 4 · 9:45 AM ET
Sold for $0.85 · short strike 44 points above spot
- 35.4%
- Touch ITM Went in the money at some point during the day
- 19.5%
- Expires ITM Expired in the money
- $3.69
- Avg Loss if ITM Average loss on the days it expired in the money
- $4.15
- Max Loss The $5 width minus the $0.85 credit
45% of the days it went in the money, it was back out by the close, earning full premium. The rest expired in the money and lost $3.69 on average, close to the $4.15 max loss. When the short strike expires in the money, you need the long strike to protect you.
The Distance Lab
Find the answer in the data first.
One chart, built from the SPXW board of November 4, 2026 · 9:45 AM ET. Scroll, and it changes — from a price, to a distance, to what each distance delivered.
01 · Price
Your broker shows you a price.
Here is the SPXW board in dollars: one dot per strike, spot marked. Is a strike 25 points out near or far? In dollars you can't tell — the same 25 points is a long way on a quiet day and next door on a wild one.
01 / 06
Strikes in dollars
Strikes in dollars. SPXW board, November 4, 2026 · 9:45 AM ET.
- Strike
02 · Distance
Now shade the Expected Move.
On this board the Expected Move is ±41.20 points: how far the day is likely to travel, shaded either side of spot. The dashed lines mark 1, 2 and 3 Expected Moves out. Measured against it, a distance means the same thing on a quiet day and a wild one.
02 / 06
The same strikes, against the Expected Move
The same strikes, against the Expected Move. SPXW board, November 4, 2026 · 9:45 AM ET.
- Strike
03 · 2x
Count what each distance delivered.
Each bar is one strike — calls right of spot, puts left — and how often a contract at its distance, bought at 9:45 AM ET, doubled in price at the close. Measured across 1,122 SPXW sessions.
It happened most often at the 7705 call, 4 points above spot: 21.8% of the time.
03 / 06
2x by the close, by distance from spot
2x by the close, by distance from spot. SPXW board, November 4, 2026 · 9:45 AM ET. 7705 call · +3.95 pts · 2x by the close 21.8%.
04 · 5x
Now ask for 5x.
5x by the close peaked at the 7745 call, 44 points above spot: 8.1% of the time. On the put side it peaked at the 7655 put, 46 points below spot: 6.6%. Neither is where 2x came most often: ask for a bigger return and the best strike moves.
04 / 06
2x and 5x by the close, by distance from spot
2x and 5x by the close, by distance from spot. SPXW board, November 4, 2026 · 9:45 AM ET. 7745 call · +43.95 pts · 5x by the close 8.1%. 7655 put · −46.05 pts · 5x by the close 6.6%.
05 · Exit
When do you take the double?
Hold Until Close is for traders who buy and forget: it counts the sessions where the double was still there at the close. Exit Anytime is for the active day trader: it counts every session where it doubled at some point during the day — yours if you sold right then.
The 7715 call from the receipt doubled at some point during the day 42.8% of the time. The 7705 call is where a double at the close was most common.
Try it05 / 06
2x at some point during the day, and still at the close
2x at some point during the day, and still at the close. SPXW board, November 4, 2026 · 9:45 AM ET. 7715 call · +13.95 pts · 2x at some point during the day 42.8% · still 2x at the close 21.0%. 7705 call · +3.95 pts · 2x at some point during the day 41.1% · still 2x at the close 21.8%.
06 · Sell
Flip it: how close is too close?
Selling turns the question around. Each bar hangs from the line: how often a strike you could sell expired in the money. Hollow dots: how often it went in the money at some point during the day.
The short strike of the 7745/7750 call spread on the receipt, 44 points above spot, went in the money at some point during the day 35.4% of the time, and expired there 19.5%.
StrikeZone IQ exposes both the intraday and end-of-day odds for your peace of mind.
06 / 06
Touch ITM and Expires ITM, by distance from spot
Touch ITM and Expires ITM, by distance from spot. SPXW board, November 4, 2026 · 9:45 AM ET. 7745 call · +43.95 pts · Touch ITM 35.4% · Expires ITM 19.5%.
| Strike | From spot | 2x by the close | 2x at some point during the day | 5x by the close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7630 put | −71.05 pts | 6.7% | 36.1% | 5.1% |
| 7635 put | −66.05 pts | 7.6% | 37.0% | 5.2% |
| 7640 put | −61.05 pts | 9.1% | 38.0% | 5.7% |
| 7645 put | −56.05 pts | 10.1% | 38.2% | 5.9% |
| 7650 put | −51.05 pts | 11.3% | 38.9% | 6.1% |
| 7655 put | −46.05 pts | 12.8% | 39.0% | 6.6% |
| 7660 put | −41.05 pts | 13.7% | 39.6% | 6.4% |
| 7665 put | −36.05 pts | 14.5% | 40.2% | 6.2% |
| 7670 put | −31.05 pts | 15.4% | 40.5% | 6.2% |
| 7675 put | −26.05 pts | 15.9% | 40.7% | 5.8% |
| 7680 put | −21.05 pts | 16.6% | 41.0% | 5.5% |
| 7685 put | −16.05 pts | 17.0% | 40.7% | 5.1% |
| 7690 put | −11.05 pts | 17.3% | 40.4% | 4.3% |
| 7695 put | −6.05 pts | 18.0% | 40.4% | 3.6% |
| 7700 put | −1.05 pts | 18.2% | 39.7% | 2.9% |
| 7705 call | +3.95 pts | 21.8% | 41.1% | 1.9% |
| 7710 call | +8.95 pts | 21.2% | 42.2% | 2.5% |
| 7715 call | +13.95 pts | 21.0% | 42.8% | 3.8% |
| 7720 call | +18.95 pts | 20.1% | 42.5% | 4.8% |
| 7725 call | +23.95 pts | 18.8% | 42.5% | 5.9% |
| 7730 call | +28.95 pts | 18.0% | 42.4% | 7.2% |
| 7735 call | +33.95 pts | 16.5% | 42.1% | 7.8% |
| 7740 call | +38.95 pts | 15.1% | 41.6% | 8.0% |
| 7745 call | +43.95 pts | 14.1% | 41.0% | 8.1% |
| 7750 call | +48.95 pts | 12.4% | 40.5% | 8.1% |
| 7755 call | +53.95 pts | 10.8% | 39.7% | 7.8% |
| 7760 call | +58.95 pts | 9.3% | 38.8% | 7.1% |
| 7765 call | +63.95 pts | 8.1% | 37.7% | 6.1% |
| 7770 call | +68.95 pts | 6.7% | 36.6% | 5.1% |
| 7775 call | +73.95 pts | 5.4% | 35.0% | 4.2% |
| Strike | From spot | Expires ITM | Touch ITM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7630 put | −71.05 pts | 8.5% | 17.2% |
| 7635 put | −66.05 pts | 10.5% | 19.6% |
| 7640 put | −61.05 pts | 12.2% | 22.2% |
| 7645 put | −56.05 pts | 13.6% | 25.1% |
| 7650 put | −51.05 pts | 15.2% | 28.8% |
| 7655 put | −46.05 pts | 16.6% | 31.6% |
| 7660 put | −41.05 pts | 18.4% | 36.7% |
| 7665 put | −36.05 pts | 21.0% | 42.0% |
| 7670 put | −31.05 pts | 25.0% | 47.1% |
| 7675 put | −26.05 pts | 27.4% | 53.1% |
| 7680 put | −21.05 pts | 30.8% | 59.9% |
| 7685 put | −16.05 pts | 33.4% | 66.9% |
| 7690 put | −11.05 pts | 36.6% | 75.7% |
| 7695 put | −6.05 pts | 40.8% | 83.1% |
| 7700 put | −1.05 pts | 45.8% | 91.9% |
| 7705 call | +3.95 pts | 50.1% | 89.6% |
| 7710 call | +8.95 pts | 47.1% | 82.4% |
| 7715 call | +13.95 pts | 43.6% | 73.8% |
| 7720 call | +18.95 pts | 40.5% | 66.2% |
| 7725 call | +23.95 pts | 35.7% | 60.8% |
| 7730 call | +28.95 pts | 31.9% | 53.2% |
| 7735 call | +33.95 pts | 28.0% | 46.9% |
| 7740 call | +38.95 pts | 23.4% | 41.3% |
| 7745 call | +43.95 pts | 19.5% | 35.4% |
| 7750 call | +48.95 pts | 16.0% | 28.9% |
| 7755 call | +53.95 pts | 13.7% | 24.5% |
| 7760 call | +58.95 pts | 11.5% | 19.9% |
| 7765 call | +63.95 pts | 9.7% | 15.7% |
| 7770 call | +68.95 pts | 7.9% | 12.9% |
| 7775 call | +73.95 pts | 6.7% | 10.1% |
Every number in this chart came from one board. The free plan is that board: the 9:45 AM ET board, posted at 10:00 AM ET each trading day.
Every strike. 59 symbols.
This is Buyer's Odds as the app shows it, on every strike of the SPXW board of November 4. Slide the ruler along the strikes to read each contract's record, or switch to the chart to see them all at once.
Expected move ruler — SPXW — November 4, 2026 · 9:45 AM ET
- Strike
- 7715 call
- From spot
- +13.95 pts
- 2x return
- 42.8%
- 3x return
- 24.5%
- 5x return
- 6.0%
- Expires worthless
- 56.4%
- Cost
- $14.10
Odds at some point during the day, counted from entries at 9:45 AM, across 1,122 sessions since May 16, 2022. Expires worthless: how often it was worth nothing at the close.
Every strike on the SPXW board of November 4, 2026 · 9:45 AM ET, entries at 9:45 AM. The shaded band is the Expected Move, ±41.20 points.
Pricing
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Questions.
What's an expected move?
The options market's own estimate, priced in real money, of how far the day is likely to travel. It is the price of the at-the-money straddle: take the strike closest to spot and add the price of its call to the price of its put. On the SPXW board of November 4, 2026 · 9:45 AM ET, the strike closest to 7701.05 was 7700: its call was $21.30 and its put $19.90, each the midpoint of its bid and ask. So the expected move was ±41.20 points around 7701.05. It is a typical move, not a ceiling — the history counts how often real days went further. Every figure on this site is measured against it, so a quiet day and a wild one are read on the same ruler.
My broker shows delta and a chance of profit. How is this different?
Both come from a pricing model run on today's option prices: rules of thumb about how a contract finishes, with nothing about the path it takes to get there. These are counts: how often contracts at the same distance and minute actually returned 30%, 2x and 5x — by the close and at some point during the day — and how often they expired worthless, across 1,122 SPXW sessions. For sellers, how often a strike went in the money during the day, and how often it stayed there.
Is this investment advice?
No. StrikeZone IQ is an analytics tool, not a broker or investment adviser. It does not tell you what to trade, and nothing on this site is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. It measures what has happened before and puts that in front of you.
Where does the history come from, and how many sessions?
1,122 SPXW trading sessions and counting, starting May 16, 2022 — the day daily 0DTE options became available on the S&P 500. The record grows by one every trading day. SPY has 1,075 sessions and QQQ 1,075; both have daily 0DTE expiries. TSLA has 307 and NVDA 307, popular names that list weekly expiries. Options data comes from Theta Data.
Which symbols are covered?
59, including SPXW, SPY, QQQ, IWM, RUTW and XSP, plus the large-cap single names and leveraged ETFs that carry liquid same-day options.
What does the free plan actually show?
A free account, no card, showing the board frozen at the 9:45 AM ET reading, posted at 10:00 AM ET each trading day (the previous trading day's until then) — Buyer's Odds, Seller's Odds and the How-to Guide, all read-only. Nothing updates while you watch. Live data, the Screener and the Watchlist are Pro, and the 14-day trial opens all of it.
Who is behind StrikeZone IQ?
Dennis Sawyers, a data scientist and author of Automated Machine Learning with Microsoft Azure. He built data and machine learning solutions at Microsoft and Ford, then from 2021 to 2023 led data science and AI at a private investment firm. He started StrikeZone IQ after watching friends lose real money on 0DTE trades made on gut feel and rules of thumb, to put measured odds in front of retail traders.