0DTE Option Analytics Based on the Expected Move
Retail traders lost $2.1 billion on options in 20 months, according to a 2023 study in the Journal of Finance.¹ Who did they lose it to? The market makers, the exchanges, the pros. StrikeZone IQ puts the historical record for every 0DTE strike in front of you, across 59 underlyings, including SPX, SPY, QQQ, TSLA and NVDA, refreshed every minute of the session on Pro. Here's one from November 4, 2026.
¹ Bryzgalova, Pavlova and Sikorskaya, “Retail Trading in Options and the Rise of the Big Three Wholesalers”, The Journal of Finance, 2023.
StrikeZone IQ · Seller's Odds
SPXW 7745/7750 call spread
November 4 · 9:45 AM ET
Sold for $0.85 · short strike 44 points above spot
45% of the days it went in the money, it was back out by the close, earning full premium. The rest expired in the money and lost $3.69 on average, close to the $4.15 max loss.
The Distance Lab
One chart, built from the SPXW board of November 4, 2026 · 9:45 AM ET. Scroll, and it changes — from a price, to a distance, to how often each distance went in the money.
01 · Price
Here is the SPXW board in dollars: one dot per strike, spot marked. Is a strike 25 points out near or far? In dollars you can't tell — the same 25 points is a long way on a quiet day and next door on a wild one.
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Strikes in dollars
Strikes in dollars. SPXW board, November 4, 2026 · 9:45 AM ET.
02 · Distance
On this board the Expected Move is ±41.20 points: how far the day is likely to travel, shaded either side of spot. The dashed lines mark 1, 2 and 3 Expected Moves out. Measured against it, a distance means the same thing on a quiet day and a wild one.
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The same strikes, against the Expected Move
The same strikes, against the Expected Move. SPXW board, November 4, 2026 · 9:45 AM ET.
03 · Expires ITM
Each bar hangs from the line: one strike you could sell — calls right of spot, puts left — and how often a strike at its distance, sold at 9:45 AM ET, expired in the money, across 1,122 SPXW sessions.
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Expires ITM, by distance from spot
Expires ITM, by distance from spot. SPXW board, November 4, 2026 · 9:45 AM ET.
04 · Touch ITM
Hollow dots: how often the same strike went in the money at some point during the day. The gap between dot and bar is the days it came back out by the close.
The short strike of the 7745/7750 call spread on the receipt, 44 points above spot, went in the money at some point during the day 35.4% of the time, and expired there 19.5%.
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Touch ITM and Expires ITM, by distance from spot
Touch ITM and Expires ITM, by distance from spot. SPXW board, November 4, 2026 · 9:45 AM ET. 7745 call · +43.95 pts · Touch ITM 35.4% · Expires ITM 19.5%.
| Strike | From spot | Expires ITM | Touch ITM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7630 put | −71.05 pts | 8.5% | 17.2% |
| 7635 put | −66.05 pts | 10.5% | 19.6% |
| 7640 put | −61.05 pts | 12.2% | 22.2% |
| 7645 put | −56.05 pts | 13.6% | 25.1% |
| 7650 put | −51.05 pts | 15.2% | 28.8% |
| 7655 put | −46.05 pts | 16.6% | 31.6% |
| 7660 put | −41.05 pts | 18.4% | 36.7% |
| 7665 put | −36.05 pts | 21.0% | 42.0% |
| 7670 put | −31.05 pts | 25.0% | 47.1% |
| 7675 put | −26.05 pts | 27.4% | 53.1% |
| 7680 put | −21.05 pts | 30.8% | 59.9% |
| 7685 put | −16.05 pts | 33.4% | 66.9% |
| 7690 put | −11.05 pts | 36.6% | 75.7% |
| 7695 put | −6.05 pts | 40.8% | 83.1% |
| 7700 put | −1.05 pts | 45.8% | 91.9% |
| 7705 call | +3.95 pts | 50.1% | 89.6% |
| 7710 call | +8.95 pts | 47.1% | 82.4% |
| 7715 call | +13.95 pts | 43.6% | 73.8% |
| 7720 call | +18.95 pts | 40.5% | 66.2% |
| 7725 call | +23.95 pts | 35.7% | 60.8% |
| 7730 call | +28.95 pts | 31.9% | 53.2% |
| 7735 call | +33.95 pts | 28.0% | 46.9% |
| 7740 call | +38.95 pts | 23.4% | 41.3% |
| 7745 call | +43.95 pts | 19.5% | 35.4% |
| 7750 call | +48.95 pts | 16.0% | 28.9% |
| 7755 call | +53.95 pts | 13.7% | 24.5% |
| 7760 call | +58.95 pts | 11.5% | 19.9% |
| 7765 call | +63.95 pts | 9.7% | 15.7% |
| 7770 call | +68.95 pts | 7.9% | 12.9% |
| 7775 call | +73.95 pts | 6.7% | 10.1% |
Every number in this chart came from one board. The free plan is that board: the 9:45 AM ET board, posted at 10:00 AM ET each trading day.
Every strike on the board, on one chart. Bars: how often it expired in the money. Dots: how often it went in the money at some point during the day. StrikeZone IQ exposes both odds to help inform your trades.
Based on 1,122 sessions since May 16, 2022 Odds counted from entries at 9:45 AM ET
| Strike | From spot (pts) | Expires ITM | Touch ITM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7635/7630 put | −66.05 | 10.5% | 19.6% |
| 7640/7635 put | −61.05 | 12.2% | 22.2% |
| 7645/7640 put | −56.05 | 13.6% | 25.1% |
| 7650/7645 put | −51.05 | 15.2% | 28.8% |
| 7655/7650 put | −46.05 | 16.6% | 31.6% |
| 7660/7655 put | −41.05 | 18.4% | 36.7% |
| 7665/7660 put | −36.05 | 21.0% | 42.0% |
| 7670/7665 put | −31.05 | 25.0% | 47.1% |
| 7675/7670 put | −26.05 | 27.4% | 53.1% |
| 7680/7675 put | −21.05 | 30.8% | 59.9% |
| 7685/7680 put | −16.05 | 33.4% | 66.9% |
| 7690/7685 put | −11.05 | 36.6% | 75.7% |
| 7695/7690 put | −6.05 | 40.8% | 83.1% |
| 7700/7695 put | −1.05 | 45.8% | 91.9% |
| 7705/7710 call | +3.95 | 50.1% | 89.6% |
| 7710/7715 call | +8.95 | 47.1% | 82.4% |
| 7715/7720 call | +13.95 | 43.6% | 73.8% |
| 7720/7725 call | +18.95 | 40.5% | 66.2% |
| 7725/7730 call | +23.95 | 35.7% | 60.8% |
| 7730/7735 call | +28.95 | 31.9% | 53.2% |
| 7735/7740 call | +33.95 | 28.0% | 46.9% |
| 7740/7745 call | +38.95 | 23.4% | 41.3% |
| 7745/7750 call | +43.95 | 19.5% | 35.4% |
| 7750/7755 call | +48.95 | 16.0% | 28.9% |
| 7755/7760 call | +53.95 | 13.7% | 24.5% |
| 7760/7765 call | +58.95 | 11.5% | 19.9% |
| 7765/7770 call | +63.95 | 9.7% | 15.7% |
| 7770/7775 call | +68.95 | 7.9% | 12.9% |
Gold star, Highest premium under 20% Expires ITM: 7745/7750 call. Silver star, Highest premium under 20% Touch ITM: 7760/7765 call
2 strikes have no spread at this width
Opened on the 7745/7750 call spread from the receipt above; pick any strike to see its $5 spread's record. The shaded band is the Expected Move, ±41.20 points. The SPXW board of November 4, 2026 · 9:45 AM ET.
Naked, Spread, Strangle or Condor. For each, the cards pick the biggest premium that expired in the money no more than 5%, 10% or 20% of the time, and show how often it went into the money and finished out.
Premium $0.38
Still expired OTM after 2x Premium: 86% · Touch ITM: 38%
Premium $0.85
Still expired OTM after 2x Premium: 68% · Touch ITM: 45%
Based on 1,122 historical sessions. Odds counted from entries at 9:45 AM ET. Historical frequencies, not predictions.
A spread caps the loss. The 7745/7750 call spread took in $0.85 a share after slippage, with a max loss of $4.15. A naked option's loss has no cap: the cards show the worst on record.
Pricing
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The options market's own estimate, priced in real money, of how far the day is likely to travel. It is the price of the at-the-money straddle: take the strike closest to spot and add the price of its call to the price of its put. On the SPXW board of November 4, 2026 · 9:45 AM ET, the strike closest to 7701.05 was 7700: its call was $21.30 and its put $19.90, each the midpoint of its bid and ask. So the expected move was ±41.20 points around 7701.05. It is a typical move, not a ceiling — the history counts how often real days went further. Every figure on this site is measured against it, so a quiet day and a wild one are read on the same ruler.
Both come from a pricing model run on today's option prices: rules of thumb about how a contract finishes, with nothing about the path it takes to get there. These are counts: how often strikes at the same distance and minute actually went in the money at some point during the day, and how often they expired there, across 1,122 SPXW sessions, beside the premium after slippage and the loss on the days it went wrong.
No. StrikeZone IQ is an analytics tool, not a broker or investment adviser. It does not tell you what to trade, and nothing on this site is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. It measures what has happened before and puts that in front of you.
1,122 SPXW trading sessions and counting, starting May 16, 2022 — the day daily 0DTE options became available on the S&P 500. The record grows by one every trading day. SPY has 1,075 sessions and QQQ 1,075; both have daily 0DTE expiries. TSLA has 307 and NVDA 307, popular names that list weekly expiries. Options data comes from Theta Data.
59, including SPXW, SPY, QQQ, IWM, RUTW and XSP, plus the large-cap single names and leveraged ETFs that carry liquid same-day options.
A free account, no card, showing the board frozen at the 9:45 AM ET reading, posted at 10:00 AM ET each trading day (the previous trading day's until then) — Buyer's Odds, Seller's Odds and the How-to Guide, all read-only. Nothing updates while you watch. Live data, the Screener and the Watchlist are Pro, and the 14-day trial opens all of it.
Dennis Sawyers, a data scientist and author of Automated Machine Learning with Microsoft Azure. He built data and machine learning solutions at Microsoft and Ford, then from 2021 to 2023 led data science and AI at a private investment firm. He started StrikeZone IQ after watching friends lose real money on 0DTE trades made on gut feel and rules of thumb, to put measured odds in front of retail traders.
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